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PaperFebruary 4, 2026

Morphogenesis as Inference

We recast developmental pattern formation as approximate Bayesian inference over a generative model of tissue. The resulting dynamics reproduce classical Turing patterns, recover experimentally observed stripe-spot transitions in zebrafish, and predict a previously unreported bistable regime in chick feather primordia.

T. NakamuraSN-XA. Bauer

Reframing

A developing embryo is not executing a pre-written program; it is *inferring* its own shape from noisy positional cues. We make that intuition precise.

Model

Tissue is a Markov random field; positional information is a noisy projection of a latent target morphology. Patterning dynamics minimise variational free energy in this field.

Result

The same equations reproduce Turing patterns, Hopfield-style stored morphologies, and a previously unreported bistable regime — feather spots that admit two stable spacings depending on initial conditions. We observe both experimentally in chick primordia cultures.

Why it matters

It reframes developmental biology as a problem in statistical mechanics, and makes concrete predictions that can be tested with current experimental tools.